Ý kiến của chuyên giá Jack Scoville - 26/02/201827/02/2018 11:40


 ...

COFFEE 

General CommentsFutures were mixed on Friday, and a little higher for the week in New York and closed near the lows of the recent trading range.  London was slightly lower on Friday and held support areas on the daily charts.  London was little changed for the week.  Both markets are looking for news to cause a move in either direction.  The charts present a sideways appearance for now and speculators remain very short, but have been starting to reduce part of those positions.  However, they anticipate big crops from Brazil and from Vietnam this year and have seen no reason to cover the short position in a big way.  New York traders are noting the good weather currently being reported in Brazil and expect another bumper crop.  However, ideas of a huge crop might now be part of the futures price.  There were reports from London of increased Vietnamese selling, but these were not verified.  The Tet holiday is no ending, so offers should start to increase.  The situation seems little changed in Latin America.  There are reports of short crops in parts of Central America and some areas in South America due to the lack of farmer investment from the low prices.  Honduras has been a very active exporter and offers from most other countries are seen.  Differentials in Central America are low.

Overnight News:  Certified stocks arelower today and are about 1.890million bags.The ICO composite price is now 113.21 ct/lb.  Brazil will get daily chances for showers.  Temperatures should be near to above normal.  Colombia should getisolated showers.  Central America and southern Mexico should get isolated showers or dry conditions.  Vietnam will get mostly dry weather, but some storms are posible in the far south.  Temperatures should average near toabovenormal.ICS said that 0 notices were posted for delivery today and that total deliveries are the month are now 1,254 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed to down with objecgtives of 118.00 May.  Support is at119.00, 116.00, and 113.00May, and resistance is at 124.00, 126.00 and 128.00 May.  Trends in London aremixed.  Support is at 1730, 1720, and 1680May, and resistance is at 1790, 1800, and 1830 May.

 

COT -- Supplemental Report - Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 20, 2018              

    :                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

:---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :      Positions

    :         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

    :    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

COFFEE C - ICE FUTURES U.S.                                                                                       

CFTC Code #083731                                                              Open Interest is   254,798

    : Positions                                                                               :

    :   38,721    97,275    54,320    94,166    86,179    48,969     7,356   236,176   245,129:   18,622     9,669

    : Changes from: February 13, 2018          (Change in open interest:      -4,284)         :

    :    2,575    13,393    -4,666    -4,693   -12,241      -325    -1,840    -7,109    -5,354:    2,825     1,070

    : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

    :     15.2      38.2      21.3      37.0      33.8      19.2       2.9      92.7      96.2:      7.3       3.8

    : Total Traders:   516          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

    :      169       155       130       131       108        28        20       390       364:

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options

Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures

Combined Positions as of 02/20/2018 

                         Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

                Producer/Merchant/

                  Processor/User                      Swap Dealers 

    OI           Long         Short         Long          Short      Spreading

===============================================================================

ICE Robusta Coffee Futures and Options - ICE Futures Europe 

  145,452       79,416        71,712        7,190         2,417        5,951 

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader 

  100.0%        54.6%        49.3%          4.9%          1.7%          4.1% 

Number of Traders in Each Category 

    159           54           50            12             7            13 

                         Reportable Positions

=============================================================================== 

            Managed Money                       Other Reportables 

    Long         Short       Spreading   Long         Short     Spreading

=============================================================================== 

   14,658        29,279       10,898     1,439         442       20,461 

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader 

   10.1%         20.1%          7.5%     1.0%         0.3%          14.1% 

Number of Traders in Each Category 

     19            31            17       13           7             17 

Nonreportable Positions

======================= 

   Long       Short

======================= 

   5,438      4,292 

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader 

   3.7%       3.0%

 

 

Nguồn: 123chienluoc.com



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