Ý kiến của chuyên giá Jack Scoville - 19/01/201821/01/2018 18:33


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Theo Jack Scoville, giá cà phê Arabica vẫn tiêu cực và hướng về mức 116 cent/lb trên kỳ hạn giao tháng 3. Các mức hỗ trợ lần lượt là 120 - 118 và 113, trong khi kháng cự là 126 - 128 và 130.

Robusta có xu thế tích cực hơn và có thể tăng lên 1840 - 1940 trên kỳ hạn giao tháng 3. Các mức hỗ trợ là 1730 - 1700 - 1670 còn kháng cự tại 1810 - 1830 - 1850.

Nguyên văn tại Barchart:

COFFEE 

General Comments:Futures werelower in New York in response to the CONAB production estimatese, but higher in London.  Chart trends remain up in London on the daily charts.  New York is still mostly in down trends.New York traders are noting the good weather currently being reported in Brazil and expect another bumper crop.  These ideas got support from CONAB as the estimate was higher than expected by the trade and was very much in line with many private estimates.  CONAB is usually the low estimate in the crowd.  London has broken out higher on short covering from speculators and some industry buying.  Internal prices in Vietnam remain at high levels compared to London and producers aznd exporters appear to be ewaiting to see if the market can rally further.  The price action yesterday suggests that the Vietnamese sellers might be rewarded for the patience, but they might consier fixing differentials now if the differentials are holding strong.  The situation seems little changed in Latin America.  Brazil exports are reduced at about 2.9 million bags in the latest report on what is called reduced inventories held by exporters and producers.  Many are concerned about the potential for reduced Brazil production due to earlier drought and the cold and dry Winter.  There is plenty of rain in some areas now and the good weather now has caused a lot of speculative and some commercial selling.   There are also reports of short crops in parts of Central America and some areas in South America due to the lack of farmer investment from the low prices.  However, Honduras has been a very active exporter and appears to be in position to make up the difference in exports from reduced offers in the rest of Central America and Colombia.  Differentials in Central America are low.

Overnight News:  Certified stocks are higher today and are about 2.012million bags.The ICO composite price is now 114.67 ct/lb.  Brazil will get lightshowerseach day with best amounts and coverage expected over the weekend.  Temperatures should be near to above normal.  Colombia should getisolated showers.  Central America and southern Mexico should get isolated showers or dry conditions.  Vietnam will get mostly dry weather, but some storms are posible in the far south.  Temperatures should average near toabovenormal.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 116.00 March.  Support is at120.00, 118.00, and 113.00March, and resistance is at 126.00, 128.00 and 130.00 March.  Trends in London are up with objectives of 1840 and 1940 March.  Support is at 1730, 1700, and 1670March, and resistance is at 1810, 1830, and 1850 March.

Nguồn: 123chienluoc.com



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Giá trị 37400-37600
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