Trong bài bình luận tối nay, chuyên gia Jack Scoville, Tập đoàn Price Futures Group tại Chicago đã nhận xét rằng, giá cà phê đã giảm trong ngày thứ Sáu tuần trước và xu hướng hiện tại là đi ngang trên cả hai thị trường. Giá cà phê Robusta đã yếu đi bị nguồn cung đang có sẵn.
Ông cho biết, các quỹ vẫn đang ở vị thế bán và các nhà thương mại mua tiền mặt vẫn gặp khó khăn. Thị trường kỳ vọng vụ mùa cà phê năm nay bội thu và người mua đã thực hiện việc bảo hiểm giá.
Một số quỹ đầu tư khác đang mua nhưng không có một lý do thỏa đáng cho điều đó. Thời tiết tại các vùng trồng cà phê Brazil được kỳ vọng là tốt và Việt Nam đang bán ra nhiều.
Brazil có mưa vào giữa tuần nhưng sau đó là khô. Các nước khác không có bất thường.
Jack Scoville vẫn cho rằng giá cà phê Arabica giao tháng 5 là tiêu cực và hướng về 118 cent/lb. Vùng hỗ trợ tại 119.00, 116.00 và 113.00; vùng kháng cự tại 124.00, 126.00 và 128. Robusta giao tháng 05/2018 có xu thế hỗn hợp.
Xem chi tiết trong bản tin tiếng Anh
Nguyên văn bài viết Tiếng Anh của Jack Scoville:
COFFEE
General CommentsFutures were lower in New York and in London Friday, and daily trends remain sideways in both markets. London has been the weaker market as Robusta now seems to be more available in the world market. The funds remain very short, and comercial buying interest in cash markets remains hard to find. They anticipate big crops from Brazil and from Vietnam this year and think that buyers are well covered right now. Other speculators seem interested in buying, but have not found real good reasons to do so. New York traders are noting the good weather currently being reported in Brazil and expect another bumper crop. Increased Vietnamese selling is being seen. The Tet holiday is about over, so sales and offers should be on the increase. The situation seems little changed in Latin America. There are reports of short crops in parts of Central America and some areas in South America due to the lack of farmer investment from the low prices. Honduras has been a very active exporter and offers from most other countries are seen. Differentials in Central America are low.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are slightlylower today and are about 1.894million bags.The ICO composite price is now 114.20 ct/lb. Brazil will getchances for showers through mid week and then will turn drier. Temperatures should be near to above normal through the weekend and near to below normal for the first half of next week. Colombia should getisolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get isolated showers or dry conditions. Vietnam will get mostly dry weather, but some storms are posible in the far south. Temperatures should average near toabovenormal.ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery today and that total deliveries are the month are now 1,538 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objecgtives of 118.00 May. Support is at119.00, 116.00, and 113.00May, and resistance is at 124.00, 126.00 and 128.00 May. Trends in London aremixed. Support is at 1730, 1710, and 1680May, and resistance is at 1780, 1800, and 1830 May.
COT -- Supplemental Report - Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 27, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
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COFFEE C - ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 266,317
: Positions :
: 41,868 95,223 60,547 97,724 93,868 48,850 8,049 248,990 257,687: 17,327 8,630
: Changes from: February 20, 2018 (Change in open interest: 11,519) :
: 3,147 -2,052 6,228 3,558 7,689 -119 693 12,814 12,558: -1,295 -1,039
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.7 35.8 22.7 36.7 35.2 18.3 3.0 93.5 96.8: 6.5 3.2
: Total Traders: 507 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 169 147 134 134 110 28 19 398 356:
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DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 02/27/2018
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Robusta Coffee Futures and Options - ICE Futures Europe
132,655 76,401 67,284 8,449 1,848 4,097
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 57.6% 50.7% 6.4% 1.4% 3.1%
Number of Traders in Each Category
154 58 49 12 6 11
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
13,596 30,973 8,183 1,355 471 14,771
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
10.2% 23.3% 6.2% 1.0% 0.4% 11.1%
Number of Traders in Each Category
15 30 12 10 7 18
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,802 5,027
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.4% 3.8%