Trang chủ TIẾNG ANH CHUYÊN NGÀNH NÔNG SẢN Jack Scoville - Morning Softs Report 04/23/18

Jack Scoville - Morning Softs Report 04/23/1824/04/2018 11:28

Jack Scoville - The PRICE Futures Group - Mon Apr 23, 10:17AM CDT

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was higher on Friday. The short side of the on call market increased sharply on a week to week basis and was considered very bullish for prices as these positions will need to be bought soon in the futures market. The gains for the week all came on Friday in response to the report. Demand remains strong in export markets as the weekly export sales report showed improved volumes. Chart trends have turned up again on daily charts and on weekly charts. The weather in the western Great Plains is showing some improvement as some areas have finally seen some precipitation. US farmers in just about all production areas plan to plant more Cotton, and the precipitation will help farmers in those areas get started. In contrast, farmers in the Delta and Southeast have seen too much rain and have had delays as soils dry out. Big rains were seen in both regions over the weekend, and there should be frequent periods of precipitation this week to keep planting progress slow.
Overnight News: The Delta and the Southeast will get drier weather this week, but some rains are likely today. Temperatures should be mostly below normal. Texas will see mostly cry conditions. Temperatures will be below normal. The USDA average price is now 80.95 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 68,436 bales, from 66,777 bales yesterday Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 8500 and 8700 July. Support is at 8420, 8330, and 83000 July, with resistance of 8500, 8580, and 8640 July.

DJ USDA Volume Of Cotton Classed Report – Apr 20
Data quoted in bales for week ending Apr 19. Totals may not add due
to rounding. * denotes data withheld to avoid disclosure of individual
producer information. Source: USDA
Weekly Season Weekly Season
Southeast 0 4,437,444 Southwest 62,243 10,165,872
NC – 763,203 Okla 21,801 835,385
SC – 405,645 Texas 34,175 9,157,595
Ga * – 2,192,635 Kansas 6,267 172,892
Ala – 774,914
Fla – 119,040 Far West 0 724,773
Va – 182,007 NM – 43,246
Ariz – 458,850
Delta 0 4,220,427 Calif – 222,677
Miss – 1,287,347
Tenn – 718,537 Pima – 676,965
Mo – 682,976 Other 0 0
Ark – 1,123,871 Total US 62,243 20,225,481
La – 407,696 pct tenderable 29.7 67.1

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was higher in range trading last week. The market is still dealing with a short crop against weak demand, and the weekly Movement and Pack report in Florida is showing higher inventories year on year. The current weather is good as temperatures are warm and it is mostly dry, but some light to moderate rains were reported over the weekend. The harvest is progressing well and fruit is being delivered to processors. Producers are now into the Valencia crop. Florida producers are seeing pea sized to marble sized fruit. Conditions are reported as generally good, although most producers would like more rain. Irrigation is being used. Brazil also could use more rain. Variable conditions are reported in Europe and northern Africa.
Overnight News: Florida should get showers and storms today, then mostly dry weather the rest of this week. Temperatures will average near to below normal. Brazil should get mostly dry weather and near to above normal temperatures. The best precipitation should be this weekend.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 145.00 May. Support is at 140.00, 138.00, and 136.00 May, with resistance at 145.00, 146.00, and 148.00 May.

DJ Florida FCOJ Movement And Pack – Apr 20
In mm ps, (million pounds solid). Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC)
WEEK ENDING: 4/14/2018
Corresponding
Current Week Last
Week Season
4/14/2018 4/15/2017 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 215.89 189.65 13.8%
Retail/Institutional 6.92 7.53 -8.1%
Total 222.81 197.18 13.0%
Pack
Bulk 4.13 3.27 26.4%
Retail/Institutional 1.45 1.07 35.3%
Total Pack 5.58 4.34 28.6%
Reprocessed -4.24 -1.99 113.2%
Pack from Fruit 1.34 2.35 -43.1%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss 0.14 -0.08 70.7%
Imports – Foreign 7.47 9.77 -23.6%
Domestic Receipts 0.16 0.09 67.8%
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entity – – NC
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 0.02 – NA
Reprocessed FCTJ – 0.03 -100.0%
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 223.56 200.74 11.4%
Retail/Institutional 8.37 8.60 -2.7%
Total 231.93 209.34 10.8%
MOVEMENT
Bulk
Domestic 3.43 4.30 -20.3%
Exports 0.42 0.22 92.8%
Total (Bulk) 3.85 4.52 -14.8%
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 1.31 1.34 -2.1%
Exports – – NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 1.31 1.34 -2.1%
Total Movement 5.16 5.86 -11.9%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 219.71 196.22 12.0%
Retail/Institutional 7.06 7.26 -2.8%
Ending Inventory 226.76 203.49 11.4%
Total Same
Total Season Period Last
To Date Season
14-Apr-18 15-Apr-17 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 185.02 212.24 -12.8%
Retail/Institutional 7.20 6.78 6.1%
Total 192.21 219.03 -12.2%
Pack
Bulk 70.98 107.92 -34.2%
Retail/Institutional 35.57 40.11 -11.3%
Total Pack 106.55 148.03 -28.0%
Reprocessed -74.20 -92.90 -20.1%
Pack from Fruit 32.35 55.13 -41.3%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss 0.85 -3.25 -73.8%
Imports – Foreign 162.01 127.26 27.3%
Domestic Receipts 4.05 2.54 59.7%
Receipts of Florida Product 0.39 0.71 -45.0%
from Non-Reporting Entity 0.16 2.01 -92.1%
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 0.47 0.39 19.0%
Reprocessed FCTJ
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 349.73 356.92 -2.0%
Retail/Institutional 42.76 46.90 -8.8%
Total 392.49 403.81 -2.8%
MOVEMENT
Bulk 121.22 125.02 -3.0%
Domestic 8.80 35.67 -75.3%
Exports 130.02 160.69 -19.1%
Total (Bulk)
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 35.70 39.63 -9.9%
Exports – – NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 35.70 39.63 -9.9%
Total Movement 165.72 200.33 -17.3%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 219.71 196.22 12.0%
Retail/Institutional 7.06 7.26 -2.8%
Ending Inventory 226.76 203.49 11.4%

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders Options and Futures Combined Positions as of April 17, 2018
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 16,794 :
: Positions :
: 9,030 8,285 1,386 0 5 685 3,296 103 801 866 2,704 :
: Changes from: April 10, 2018 :
: -321 854 70 0 5 141 -451 5 -205 -45 148 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 53.8 49.3 8.3 0.0 0.0 4.1 19.6 0.6 4.8 5.2 16.1 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 60 :
: 20 13 5 0 . . 14 . 10 5 10 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments Futures in New York were higher as strong commercial buying met fund selling and origin price-fixing. Volumes of trade were reduced as many participants were in Seattle for the SCAA show. London was a little lower. Origin is still offering in Central America and is still finding weak differentials. Good business is getting done and exports are active. Traders anticipate big crops from Brazil and from Vietnam this year and have remained short in the market. New York traders are talking about good weather currently being reported in Brazil and expect another bumper crop. Robusta remains the stronger market as Vietnamese producers and merchants are not willing to sell at current prices and are willing to wait for a rally. Vietnamese cash prices were steady again last week with good supplies noted in the domestic market.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 1.979 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 111.77 ct/lb. Brazil will get drier conditions until showers appear on Sunday. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Colombia should get isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get isolated showers or dry conditions. Vietnam will get showers in the north starting tomorrow. ICE said that there were 0 deliveries today in New York and that total deliveries for the month are 87 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 115.00 and 111.00 July. Support is at 115.00, 112.00, and 109.00 July, and resistance is at 118.00, 121.00 and 123.00 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1740, 1720, and 1700 July, and resistance is at 1780, 1790, and 1810 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 17, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 305,172
: Positions :
: 46,496 117,073 73,603 113,986 96,022 51,129 9,842 285,214 296,540: 19,959 8,632
: Changes from: April 10, 2018 (Change in open interest: -13,183) :
: -2,507 10,626 -9,942 -727 -10,571 -747 -2,588 -13,923 -12,475: 740 -709
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.2 38.4 24.1 37.4 31.5 16.8 3.2 93.5 97.2: 6.5 2.8
: Total Traders: 564 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 182 180 152 140 118 27 16 427 404:
——————————————————————————————————————-
DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 04/17/2018
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Robusta Coffee Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
139,143 83,123 70,307 8,485 2,457 2,826
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 59.7% 50.5% 6.1% 1.8% 2.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
163 58 51 16 5 14
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
12,645 30,968 8,160 2,271 1,868 16,253
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
9.1% 22.3% 5.9% 1.6% 1.3% 11.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
13 36 18 10 9 17
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,380 6,304
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
3.9% 4.5%

SUGAR
General Comments: Futures were a little lower on Friday and finished the week on a poor note Trends are mostly down in both markets. The fundamentals remain little changed, and there does not seem to be much for now that can shake the market out of its current trend. Traders hear about big production from the world producers and little in the way of special demand that could absorb some of the surplus. Ideas that Sugar supplies available to the market can increase in the short-term have been key to any selling. India is back to export Sugar this year after being a net importer for the last couple of years. They hope to export 4.0 million tons this year. Thailand has produced a record crop and is selling. Brazil still has plenty of Sugar to sell.
Overnight News: Brazil will get dry weather until some showers return on Sunday. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 1180 and 1120 July. Support is at 1170, 1140, and 1110 July, and resistance is at 1200, 1240, and 1270 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 336.00, 333.00, and 331.00 August, and resistance is at 345.00, 346.00, and 348.00 August.

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 04/17/2018
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE White Sugar Futures and Options- ICE Futures Europe
90,322 27,409 55,423 20,721 1,249 1,256
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 30.3% 61.4% 22.9% 1.4% 1.4%
Number of Traders in Each Category
137 41 51 14 3 4
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
24,327 20,043 4,876 4,937 1,342 2,019
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
26.9% 22.2% 5.4% 5.5% 1.5% 2.2%
Number of Traders in Each Category
18 24 9 9 7 9
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
4,777 4,115
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
5.3% 4.6%

COCOA
General Comments Futures were sharply lower on the weaker than expected US grind data. The Asian data was strong. The grind was down quarter to quarter, but was higher year to year. The Asian grind came after strong E?U grind data seen on Thursday. Grinders are making good money in the processing right now and will be looking for any beans they can find. Ideas of smaller world production that has been largely sold remain part of the rally. Showers and more seasonal temperatures have been seen in the last few weeks to improve overall production conditions in West Africa. The mid crop harvest is starting, and wire reports indicate that some initial mid crop harvest is underway in Nigeria. No yield reports have been seen yet, but estimates from the country imply that variable yields can be expected. The harvest should begin soon in Ivory Coast and Ghana.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see frequent showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get cry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 5.197 million bags. ICE said that 135 delivery notices were posted against May Contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 147 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with no objectives. Support is at 2700, 2670, and 2630 July, with resistance at 2780, 2860, and 2890 July. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1910 July. Support is at 1810, 1780, and 1750 July, with resistance at 1890, 1910, and 1940 July.

DJ Asia 1Q Cocoa Grinding Rise 7.2% On-Year, Fall 3.2% On-Quarter
By Lucy Craymer
Asian cocoa grinding rose 7.2% in the first quarter from the same period last year to 190,244 metric tons, according to figures issued by the Cocoa Association of Asia on Friday.
Compared with the fourth quarter, grinding were down 3.2%, the data showed. This was in line with market expectations.
Grinding refer to the volume of cocoa beans processed into the butters and powders used to make chocolate and are often used as a proxy for chocolate demand.
The data reflect the compilation of grinding from Malaysia as well as from Cocoa Association of Asia members in both Singapore and Indonesia.
European cocoa data released earlier this week by the European Cocoa Association showed grinding were up 5.5% in the first quarter from the prior year, outperforming industry expectations. Grinding numbers for North America are due in the coming weeks.

DJ Cocoa Futures Slide on Lower Grinding — Market Talk
1127 ET – US cocoa futures fall on signs of weaker demand. The National Confectioners Association said that North American processors ground 1.1% less cocoa in 1Q 2018 than a year earlier, whereas traders were mostly expecting an increase. That has prompted funds and other speculators who had bet heavily on strong chocolate demand to cool off. Cocoa prices — which bounded to the highest point in over 18 months ahead of the report — ease. July futures fall 2.6% to $2,726 a ton. Asian grinding data showed strong demand, however, rising over 7% in 1Q.

DJ European Cocoa Grinding Buoy London Futures — Market Talk
1342 GMT – London cocoa futures are up 2.4% at GBP1,829 a metric ton after the European Cocoa Association said grinding–the amount of raw cocoa processed into butter and powder to make confectionary and chocolate–rose 5.5% in 1Q. That’s the highest first-quarter percentage rise on record and a sign that cocoa demand remains strong in Europe. Though prices of cocoa butter rose sharply, companies were still able to use the cocoa beans they had bought at low prices, Commerzbank analysts say. However, “cocoa prices have soared in the past two months…driving margins back down again. Grinding in the second quarter is therefore likely to be considerably lower,” they say. (david.hodari@wsj.com; @davidhodari)

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 04/17/2018
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Cocoa Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
385,127 206,461 251,981 18,395 26,310 25,791
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 53.6% 65.4% 4.8% 6.8% 6.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
164 57 48 15 7 12
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
55,242 8,719 28,881 4,582 797 40,187
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
14.3% 2.3% 7.5% 1.2% 0.2% 10.4%
Number of Traders in Each Category
39 12 15 14 8 22
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,587 2,461
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.5% 0.6%