Morning Softs Report 06/27/1827/06/2018 23:32

Jack Scoville - The PRICE Futures Group - Wed Jun 27, 8:56AM CDT


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     COTTON

General Comments: Cotton was lower as crop conditions seem to be improving and as the market worries about demand. Wire reports indicate that tariffs against US Cotton have forced buyers in China to look to India. Forward sales have increased and prices there have held firm. The US would have been the primary source, now India and other countries are doing the selling. Ideas have been that US Cotton conditions remain poor due to the extreme dry and hot weather in western Texas. However, crop conditions were improved as some rains have been seen in Texas and as the Southeast has been a little drier. USDA showed improved conditions on Monday. The weather is bad in India and China, with big heat seen in India and Pakistan and too much rain in China. The monsoon has started in southern India, but Pakistan remains very hot and dry and is still facing drought conditions. The drought in Pakistan is turning serious as some irrigation supplies are starting to run out and as some Wells start to run dry. USDA will issue its quarterly stocks and planted area reports on Friday, and planted area should be a little higher.
Overnight News: The Delta will be mostly dry after some showers today and the Southeast will get mostly dry weather after sowers today. Both areas have chances for showers late this weekend. Temperatures should be mostly below normal. Texas will see mostly dry conditions. Some showers are possible on Saturday. Temperatures will be above normal. The USDA average price is now 82.41 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 92,009 bales, from 88,762 bales yesterday. ICE said that 497 delivery notices were posted against July Contracts today and that total deliveries are now 597 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with objectives of 7880 December. Support is at 8380, 8300, and 8150 December, with resistance of 8620, 8710, and 8840 December.

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was lower again and overall the market remains in a big trading range. Florida weather remains good and demand prospects remain poor. The tariff wars between the US and Canada, Mexico, and the EU are hurting export demand ideas. The EU imports a lot of FCOJ and these exports will most likely be hurt due to retaliation that will be made by Europe that included increased tariffs on US FCOJ. The EU has indicated that FCOJ will be on the list of items subject to increased tariffs and that the measures will be enacted next month. The growing conditions in Florida should remain good as the rainy season appears to be underway. Florida producers are seeing golf ball sized or larger fruit, and work in groves maintenance is active. Conditions are reported as generally good, although it is dry in the state this week. Brazil could use more rain as Sao Paulo has been hot and mostly dry. The harvest there is active.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers each day. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get mostly dry weather, but some showers tomorrow, and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 158.00, 156.00, and 153.00 September, with resistance at 165.00, 167.00, and 169.00 September.

COFFEE
General Comments Futures were a little higher in New York, and in London. The charts showed a potential short-term bottom in New York, and speculators were buyers. London was firm despite ideas of good world availability of Robusta. It has been dry in Vietnam, and there is little on offer from that origin as producers want to see how big the next crop will be and try to wait for higher prices. New York is in a short-term trading range, while trends in London are down. Robusta offers from Vietnam are still down and traders say internal supplies are tight due to a smaller than expected harvest last year. It remains mostly dry in Arabica areas of Brazil, and there is no rain in the forecast for the next week. Origin is still offering in Central America and is still finding weak differentials. The logistics of delivering Coffee to ports is still a big problem in Nicaragua and Guatemala. Speculators anticipate big crops from Brazil and from Vietnam this year and have remained short in the market.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 2.057 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 110.17 ct/lb. Brazil will get drier conditions. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Colombia should get isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get showers. Vietnam will get showers. ICE said that 16 delivery notices were posted in New York and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,149 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 120.00 and 123.00 September. Support is at 116.00, 115.00, and 112.00 September, and resistance is at 119.00, 120.00 and 122.00 September. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1610 and 1410 September. Support is at 1670, 1640, and 1610 September, and resistance is at 1700, 1710, and 1730 September.

SUGAR
General Comments: Futures were higher in both New York and London in response to the positive UNICA data. UNICA showed another big reporting period for demand and processing, and noted that the mills are processing Sugarcane more and more for Ethanol. There is no real selling interest from producers as they hope for higher prices. Brazil producers are also worried about Cane production even with the rapid early harvest. Movement from mills to ports has been slow due to the high freight costs left from the recent truckers strike. However, there is still a lot of Sugar in the world. India is back to export Sugar this year after being a net importer for the last couple of years. India has reached a deal to buy at least part of the Indian surplus, so hopes are that India will not offer as much into the world market. Conditions have improved in the last week as monsoon rains have arrived. Thailand has produced a record crop and is selling.
Overnight News: Brazil will get dry weather. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1220, 1200, and 1190 October, and resistance is at 1250, 1280, and 1320 October. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 340.00, 336.00, and 335.00 October, and resistance is at 348.00, 352.00, and 353.00 October.

COCOA
General Comments Futures were lower in New York and London, but the tone has become more mixed. Funds are starting to add to long positions again and there are still some concerns about demand. Ideas are that demand can start to improve with the lower price levels, but the world economic situation is still in a flux and the Pound and the Euro were weaker yesterday. Fears about the EU economy last week are important to Cocoa as Europe is the largest per capita consumer of chocolate in the world. North American demand could be pressured due to the economic wars started in the US against its neighbors. Showers and more seasonal temperatures have been seen in the last few weeks to improve overall production conditions in West Africa. Conditions also appear good in East Africa and Asia. The mid crop harvest is active in West Africa.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa, but most main areas will be dry. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see frequent showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.902 million bags. ICE said that 0 notices were posted against July contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 5 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2650 September. Support is at 2430, 2380, and 2320 September, with resistance at 2560, 2590, and 2620 September. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1930 September. Support is at 1790, 1750, and 1710 September, with resistance at 1850, 1870, and 1900 September.

Nguồn: 123chienluoc.com



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