COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was mixed, with nearby months lower and new crop months slightly higher. It appears that some speculative selling has been going on, and weekly charts show the potential that the market has made a blow off top in the last couple of weeks. Rains were reported in the Texas Panhandle over the weekend and were enough to be beneficial. Demand has been strong and merchants have had trouble finding the Cotton in domestic cash markets. Export sales have been very strong and above many trade expectations at the beginning of the marketing year. Prices overall have been much higher than most commercials had expected, but the carry spread weakness could be a sign that merchants have been able to get covered in the last couple of weeks. Prices could remain strong until closer to harvest, but there is a chance that the highs have been seen. The market expects increased plantings in the western Great Plains due to all of the problems with the Winter Wheat crops in the region. So, buying interest in new crop months is much harder to find.
Overnight News: The Delta and the Southeast will get significant precipitation over the next few days. Temperatures should be mostly near to above normal. Texas will see more precipitation near the end of the week. Temperatures will be warm. The USDA average price is now 79.75 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 79,795 bales, from 79,795 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are ,mixed. Support is at 8200, 8170, and 8070 May, with resistance of 8420, 8550, and 8660 May.
DJ USDA Volume Of Cotton Classed Report – Mar 16
Data quoted in bales for week ending Mar 15. Totals may not add due
to rounding. * denotes data withheld to avoid disclosure of individual
producer information. Source: USDA
Weekly Season Weekly Season
Southeast 0 4,434,413 Southwest 123,440 9,746,513
NC – 763,203 Okla 36,304 673,219
SC * – 405,644 Texas 79,183 8,934,911
Ga – 2,191,730 Kansas 7,953 138,383
Ala – 772,789
Fla – 119,040 Far West 228,486 494,334
Va – 182,007 NM * – 43,246
Ariz 5,809 451,088
Delta 673 4,216,769 Calif 222,677 0
Miss 673 1,283,689
Tenn – 718,537 Pima – 673,770
Mo – 682,976 Other 0 0
Ark – 1,123,871 Total US 129,922 19,788,476
La – 407,696 pct tenderable 41.4 67.7
COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 13, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 338,140
: Positions :
: 101,055 13,863 69,693 54,263 233,020 93,453 8,569 318,464 325,146: 19,676 12,994
: Changes from: March 6, 2018 (Change in open interest: 4,816) :
: 1,113 -1,242 3,947 13 3,660 -515 -2,670 4,559 3,695: 258 1,121
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 29.9 4.1 20.6 16.0 68.9 27.6 2.5 94.2 96.2: 5.8 3.8
: Total Traders: 319 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 146 55 98 57 74 32 14 280 203:
——————————————————————————————————————-
FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was a little lower and trends remain sideways to down. The market has turned quiet and there is not much news. Futures remain in a trading range but show a weak appearance on both the daily and weekly charts and Florida remains mostly warm and dry. The market is still dealing with a short crop against weak demand. The current weather is good as temperatures are warm and it is mostly dry, but the crop is small. The harvest is progressing well and fruit is being delivered to processors. Producers are now into the Valencia crop with the early and mid harvest completed. Florida producers are actively harvesting and performing maintenance on land and trees. Flowering has been reported in the groves, and some fruit is forming. Irrigation is being used.
Overnight News: Florida should get rains and storms over the next day or two, then mostly dry weather. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near to below normal temperatures. The best precipitation should be this weekend. ICE said that 0 delivery notices were posted today against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are 14 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with objectives of 131.00 May. Support is at 138.00, 136.00, and 135.00 May, with resistance at 143.00, 146.00, and 147.00 May.
DJ Florida FCOJ Movement And Pack – Mar 16
In mm ps, (million pounds solid). Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC)
WEEK ENDING: 3/10/2018
Corresponding
Current Week Last
Week Season
3/10/2018 3/11/2017 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 185.93 179.23 3.7%
Retail/Institutional 7.27 8.15 -10.8%
Total 193.21 187.38 3.1%
Pack
Bulk 3.92 2.55 53.8%
Retail/Institutional 1.46 1.30 11.7%
Total Pack 5.37 3.85 39.6%
Reprocessed -3.50 -2.95 18.6%
Pack from Fruit 1.87 0.89 108.8%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -0.15 -0.08 82.2%
Imports – Foreign 11.69 5.88 98.8%
Domestic Receipts – – NC
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entity 0.15 – NA
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ – – NC
Reprocessed FCTJ – – NC
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 198.03 184.62 7.3%
Retail/Institutional 8.73 9.46 -7.7%
Total 206.76 194.07 6.5%
MOVEMENT
Bulk
Domestic 4.42 4.10 7.7%
Exports 0.41 0.33 24.3%
Total (Bulk) 4.82 4.43 8.9%
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 1.26 1.66 -24.3%
Exports – – NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 1.26 1.66 -24.3%
Total Movement 6.08 6.09 -0.1%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 193.21 180.19 7.2%
Retail/Institutional 7.47 7.80 -4.1%
Ending Inventory 200.68 187.98 6.8%
Total Same
Total Season Period Last
To Date Season
10-Mar-18 11-Mar-17 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 185.02 212.24 -12.8%
Retail/Institutional 7.20 6.78 6.1%
Total 192.21 219.03 -12.2%
Pack
Bulk 53.04 87.94 -39.7%
Retail/Institutional 29.61 33.73 -12.2%
Total Pack 82.65 121.66 -32.1%
Reprocessed -56.27 -78.60 -28.4%
Pack from Fruit 26.37 43.07 -38.8%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss 0.86 -3.02 -71.4%
Imports – Foreign 114.00 93.71 21.7%
Domestic Receipts 3.80 1.51 152.1%
Receipts of Florida Product 0.37 0.70 -47.5%
from Non-Reporting Entity 0.13 2.00 -93.4%
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 0.43 0.36 19.4%
Reprocessed FCTJ
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 301.37 316.84 -4.9%
Retail/Institutional 36.80 40.51 -9.2%
Total 338.17 357.35 -5.4%
MOVEMENT
Bulk 101.03 103.57 -2.4%
Domestic 7.13 33.08 -78.4%
Exports 108.16 136.65 -20.8%
Total (Bulk)
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 29.33 32.71 -10.3%
Exports – – NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 29.33 32.71 -10.3%
Total Movement 137.49 169.36 -18.8%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 193.21 180.19 7.2%
Retail/Institutional 7.47 7.80 -4.1%
Ending Inventory 200.68 187.98 6.8%
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of March 13, 2018
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 15,323 :
: Positions :
: 8,590 7,416 1,343 0 0 547 2,861 96 756 876 2,313 :
: Changes from: March 6, 2018 :
: 422 177 79 0 0 10 141 4 -63 12 206 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 56.1 48.4 8.8 0.0 0.0 3.6 18.7 0.6 4.9 5.7 15.1 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 58 :
: 21 12 5 0 0 . 10 . 9 7 12 :
—————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE
General Comments Futures were lower in New York, but slightly higher in London. Trends turned down on the charts again. Funds and other speculators were the best sellers. Origin was quiet. Traders anticipate big crops from Brazil and from Vietnam this year and have seen no reason to cover the short position in a big way. New York traders are talking about good weather currently being reported in Brazil and expect another bumper crop. Robusta remains the stronger market. The situation seems little changed in Latin America. There are reports of short crops in parts of Central America and some areas in South America due to the lack of farmer investment from the low prices. Honduras has been a very active exporter and offers from most other countries are seen. Differentials in Central America are low and the buy side is quiet.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are unchanged today and are about 1.927 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 111.79 ct/lb. Brazil will get chances for showers during the second half of the week. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Colombia should get isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get isolated showers or dry conditions. Vietnam will get showers from north to south over the next few days. Temperatures should average near to above normal. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery today and that total deliveries are the month are now 1,547 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 116.00, 113.00, and 110.00 May, and resistance is at 122.00, 125.00 and 126.00 May. Trends in London are mixed to down, with objectives of 1700 and 1650 May. Support is at 1730, 1710, and 1680 May, and resistance is at 1780, 1800, and 1830 May.
COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 13, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 289,429
: Positions :
: 46,124 98,499 74,449 102,052 100,700 49,170 9,162 271,795 282,810: 17,634 6,619
: Changes from: March 6, 2018 (Change in open interest: 8,202) :
: 2,272 3,920 7,353 -1,654 -1,482 -164 348 7,807 10,139: 395 -1,937
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.9 34.0 25.7 35.3 34.8 17.0 3.2 93.9 97.7: 6.1 2.3
: Total Traders: 539 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 187 150 151 144 120 28 20 437 379:
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR
General Comments: Futures were lower, and London made new contract lows. Trends are down again in New York and London. The overall feel of the market is that prices for now are cheap enough, but both New York and London appear to need a catalyst to work higher in a big way. Ideas that Sugar supplies available to the market can increase in the short-term have been key to the selling. India will export up to 1.0 million tons of Sugar this year after being a net importer for the last couple of years. Thailand has produced a record crop and is selling. Mills in Brazil have decided to make more Ethanol as world Crude Oil and products prices have been very strong. Brazil still has plenty of Sugar to sell even with the different refining mix.
Overnight News: Brazil will get chances for showers starting on Wednesday. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 1250 May. Support is at 1250, 1220, and 1190 May, and resistance is at 1290, 1320, and 1340 May. Trends in London are down with objectives of 341.00 and 340.00 May. Support is at 347.00, 344.00, and 341.00 May, and resistance is at 353.00, 356.00, and 360.00 May.
COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 13, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,027,976
: Positions :
: 125,464 291,077 207,070 336,089 418,072 271,565 27,440 940,187 943,658: 87,788 84,317
: Changes from: March 6, 2018 (Change in open interest: 81,200) :
: 267 36,305 24,724 44,482 11,650 -81 -589 69,393 72,091: 11,807 9,110
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.2 28.3 20.1 32.7 40.7 26.4 2.7 91.5 91.8: 8.5 8.2
: Total Traders: 276 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 68 92 87 71 70 24 15 213 221:
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA
General Comments Futures closed mixed, with New York a little higher and London unchanged. It has been a big supply based rally that could be running out of steam right now, but the rally overall has been impressive. Trends are still up in both markets, but New York needs to make new highs to avoid a correction now. Most in the trade anticipate the increased demand, and current West Africa weather is hot enough and dry enough to create production concerns. There have been reports recently of delayed deliveries to ports. It has been hot and dry in many parts of West Africa, but showers and more seasonal temperatures have been seen in the last week to improve overall production conditions. The mid crop harvest is starting, and wire reports indicate that some initial mid crop harvest is underway in Nigeria. Demand has been improving and is likely to continue to improve as long as prices stay generally weak as processing margins are said to be very strong. Production is expected to weaken as Ghana said it will have trouble paying back financing loans and Ivory Coast has said it will spend less on farm renovation for the next few years due to low prices seen until recently.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see frequent showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get cry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 4.543 million bags. ICE said that 0 delivery notices were posted today and that total deliveries for the month are now 652 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 2470, 2400, and 2340 May, with resistance at 2580, 2600, and 2630 May. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 1770, 1730, and 1680 May, with resistance at 1830, 1860, and 1890 May.
COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 13, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 361,480
: Positions :
: 85,258 51,565 100,032 105,174 175,740 53,704 22,430 344,168 349,767: 17,312 11,713
: Changes from: March 6, 2018 (Change in open interest: 26,775) :
: 9,480 -206 14,931 1,322 7,510 825 2,853 26,559 25,089: 217 1,687
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 23.6 14.3 27.7 29.1 48.6 14.9 6.2 95.2 96.8: 4.8 3.2
: Total Traders: 273 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 120 64 84 45 39 26 8 237 158:
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