Morning Softs Report 03/20/1821/03/2018 19:39

Jack Scoville - The PRICE Futures Group - Tue Mar 20, 11:43AM CDT



COTTON

General Comments: Cotton was lower and trends turned down on the daily charts. Selling was seen in most markets on worries about trade threats posed by the potential tariffs on China by President Trump. Funds were the best sellers. Weekly charts show the potential that the market has made a blow off top in the last couple of weeks. Rains were reported in the Texas Panhandle over the weekend and were enough to be beneficial. Demand has been strong and merchants have had trouble finding the Cotton in domestic cash markets. Export sales have been very strong and above many trade expectations at the beginning of the marketing year. Prices overall have been much higher than most commercials had expected, but the carry spread weakness could be a sign that merchants have been able to get covered in the last couple of weeks. Prices could remain strong until closer to harvest, but there is a chance that the highs have been seen. The market expects increased plantings in the western Great Plains due to all of the problems with the Winter Wheat crops in the region.
Overnight News: The Delta will be dry and the Southeast will get significant precipitation over the next few days. Temperatures should be mostly near to above normal. Texas will see mostly cry conditions. Temperatures will be warm. The USDA average price is now 78.06 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 76,795 bales, from 76,795 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are ,down with objectives of 8070 and 7820 May. Support is at 8070, 8030, and 7940 May, with resistance of 8200, 8270, and 8380 May.

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was a little lower. Futures remain in a trading range but show a weak appearance on both the daily and weekly charts and Florida remains mostly warm and dry. The market is still dealing with a short crop against weak demand. The current weather is good as temperatures are warm and it is mostly dry, but some big rains are reported in northern parts of the state. The harvest is progressing well and fruit is being delivered to processors. Producers are now into the Valencia crop with the early and mid harvest completed. Florida producers are actively harvesting and performing maintenance on land and trees. Flowering has been reported in the groves, and some fruit is forming. Irrigation is being used.
Overnight News: Florida should get rains and storms over the next day or two, then mostly dry weather. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near to below normal temperatures. The best precipitation should be this weekend. ICE said that 0 delivery notices were posted today against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are 14 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with objectives of 131.00 May. Support is at 138.00, 136.00, and 135.00 May, with resistance at 143.00, 146.00, and 147.00 May.

COFFEE
General Comments Futures were slightly higher. Trends are still mostly down on the charts. Funds and other speculators were on both sides of the market. Origin was quiet. Traders anticipate big crops from Brazil and from Vietnam this year and have seen no reason to cover the short position in a big way. New York traders are talking about good weather currently being reported in Brazil and expect another bumper crop. Robusta remains the stronger market. The situation seems little changed in Latin America. There are reports of short crops in parts of Central America and as some areas in South America due to the lack of farmer investment from the low prices. Honduras has been a very active exporter and offers from most other countries are seen. Differentials in Central America are low and the buy side is quiet.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are unchanged today and are about 1.929 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 112.68 ct/lb. Brazil will get chances for showers during the week and drier conditions over the weekend. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Colombia should get isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get isolated showers or dry conditions. Vietnam will get showers from north to south over the next few days. Temperatures should average near to above normal. ICE said that 2 notices were posted for delivery today and that total deliveries are the month are now 1,549 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 116.00, 113.00, and 110.00 May, and resistance is at 122.00, 125.00 and 126.00 May. Trends in London are mixed to down, with objectives of 1700 and 1650 May. Support is at 1730, 1710, and 1680 May, and resistance is at 1780, 1800, and 1830 May.

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 03/13/2018
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Robusta Coffee Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
136,226 76,820 72,496 7,775 1,828 4,410
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 56.4% 53.2% 5.7% 1.3% 3.2%
Number of Traders in Each Category
158 59 51 13 5 12
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
15,103 26,930 8,071 1,421 1,172 17,341
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
11.1% 19.8% 5.9% 1.0% 0.9% 12.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
18 27 15 13 6 19
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,286 3,979
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
3.9% 2.9%

SUGAR
General Comments: Futures were higher, and New York made a reversal on the charts. The overall feel of the market is that prices for now are cheap enough, but both New York and London appear to need a catalyst to work higher in a big way. Ideas that Sugar supplies available to the market can increase in the short-term have been key to the selling. India will export up to 1.0 million tons of Sugar this year after being a net importer for the last couple of years. Thailand has produced a record crop and is selling. Mills in Brazil have decided to make more Ethanol as world Crude Oil and products prices have been very strong. Brazil still has plenty of Sugar to sell even with the different refining mix.
Overnight News: Brazil will get chances for showers starting on Wednesday. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1250, 1230, and 1200 May, and resistance is at 1290, 1320, and 1340 May. Trends in London are down with objectives of 341.00 and 340.00 May. Support is at 347.00, 344.00, and 344.00 May, and resistance is at 360.00, 364.00, and 370.00 May.

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 03/13/2018
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE White Sugar Futures and Options- ICE Futures Europe
101,180 45,340 61,736 16,804 3,121 1,651
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 44.5% 60.6% 16.5% 3.1% 1.6%
Number of Traders in Each Category
144 48 61 12 6 3
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
17,972 19,461 8,130 5,394 1,421 1,804
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
17.7% 19.1% 8.0% 5.3% 1.4% 1.9%
Number of Traders in Each Category
18 20 12 10 6 8
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
4,715 4,486
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.6% 4.4%

COCOA
General Comments Futures closed lower and short-term trends turned down. It has been a big supply based rally that could be running out of steam right now, but the rally overall has been impressive. Trends are still up in both markets, but New York needs to make new highs to avoid a correction now. Most in the trade anticipate the increased demand, and current West Africa weather is hot enough and dry enough to create production concerns. There have been reports recently of delayed deliveries to ports. It has been hot and dry in many parts of West Africa, but showers and more seasonal temperatures have been seen in the last week to improve overall production conditions. The mid crop harvest is starting, and wire reports indicate that some initial mid crop harvest is underway in Nigeria. Demand has been improving and is likely to continue to improve as long as prices stay generally weak as processing margins are said to be very strong. Production is expected to weaken as Ghana said it will have trouble paying back financing loans and Ivory Coast has said it will spend less on farm renovation for the next few years due to low prices seen until recently.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see frequent showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get cry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 4.589 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2440 and 2360 May. Support is at 2400, 2340, and 2230 May, with resistance at 2510, 2580, and 2600 May. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1710 May. Support is at 1730, 1680, and 1650 May, with resistance at 1790, 1830, and 1860 May.

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 03/13/2018
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Cocoa Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
338,798 177,232 205,175 25,749 23,076 23,019
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 52.3% 60.6% 7.6% 6.8% 6.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
156 55 48 16 6 10
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
38,919 21,908 27,353 6,483 340 35,322
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
11.5% 6.5% 8.1% 1.9% 0.1% 10.4%
Number of Traders in Each Category
31 14 14 14 8 21
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
4,722 2,605
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.4% 0.8%

Nguồn: 123chienluoc.com



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